Volume 12, No. 1

Authors: Černohorski, Branimir; Doupona Topič, Mojca; Pustovrh, Janez

Predictability of cross-country skiers' competitive performance in terms of sociological variables

Napoved tekmovalne uspešnosti v smučarskem teku z vidika socioloških spremenljivk

Abstract (English)

The purpose of the study is to establish the values of variables from the sociological area in predicting potential competitive performance in cross-country skiing. The sociological area, encompassing 11 variables, was studied within the MMPS model of potential performance (motor abilities, morphology, psychology, sociology). The sample consists of 48 cross-country skiers from three competitive categories. The expert modelling procedure was used to obtain scores (1-10) for the potential performance of the subjects at all levels of the sociological area. An analysis of the correlation between these scores and the actual competitive performance criterion (SLO_FIS) shows that the sociological area in all three categories of subjects is statistically insignificantly correlated with their competitive performance. Nevertheless, due to the small number of subjects the results cannot be generalised. After two subjects from each category were eliminated, this correlation increased substantially; in the category of older junior men it even reached the level of statistical significance (r = - 0.65). The results show that the original expert modelling procedure in the sociological area deserves further research attention and should be verified on larger samples of subjects practising not only this sport but also other sports.

Keywords (English)

sociology, cross-country skiing, expert modelling, competitive performance

Abstract (Slovenian)

S študijo smo želeli ugotoviti vrednost spremenljivk sociološkega prostora pri napovedovanju potencialne tekmovalne uspešnosti v smučarskem teku. Sociološki prostor, ki je zajemal 11 spremenljivk, smo proučevali v sklopu modela potencialne uspešnosti MMPS (motorika, morfologija, psihologija, sociologija). V vzorec je bilo zajetih 48 smučarjev tekačev v treh tekmovalnih kategorijah. S postopkom ekspertnega modeliranja smo pridobili ocene (1-10) o potencialni uspešnosti merjencev na vseh nivojih sociološkega prostora. Analiza povezanosti teh ocen s kriterijem dejanske tekmovalne uspešnosti je pokazala, da je sociološki prostor pri vseh treh kategorijah preizkušancev statistično neznačilno povezan z njihovo tekmovalno uspešnostjo. Vendar zaradi majhnega vzorca rezultatov ne moremo posploševati. Po izločitvi dveh preizkušancev iz vsake kategorije ta povezanost precej naraste, v kategoriji starejših mladincev celo do nivoja statistične značilnosti. Rezultati kažejo, da je izviren postopek ekspertnega modeliranja v sociološkem prostoru vreden nadaljnjega proučevanja in preverjanja na večjih vzorcih preizkušancev te in tudi ostalih športnih pa

Keywords (Slovenian)

sociologija, smučarski tek, ekspertno modeliranje, tekmovalna uspešnost

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